What the Google break-up threat means for Alphabet’s stock

The Department of Justice indicated this week that it’s weighing a potential break up of search giant Google, and the news could hold headline risks for shares of parent company Alphabet . Late Tuesday, the DOJ issued recommendations for Google to curtail what a federal U.S. judge had ruled in August as a monopoly over the search engine business. The Justice Department’s proposals included “behavioral and structural remedies” that would prevent Google from using its products against its rivals. The DOJ also indicated it was considering breaking up the company. Shares of Alphabet slipped about 2% Wednesday. The DOJ’s framework on Tuesday was largely in-line with expectations, per JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth. However, it was “somewhat broad and unspecific in terms of exact remedies,” he said, meaning that significant changes could be in store in the DOJ’s final proposed remedies due on Nov. 20. GOOGL YTD mountain Google shares in 2024 Overall, Alphabet shares likely won’t change much on the DOJ’s initial framework in the short term, according to JPMorgan. “We do not believe there are any major surprises, but the preliminary framework carries headline risk and suggests structural changes or separation proposals are possible. … Street focus will shift to earnings over the next few weeks and then to final proposed DOJ remedies on November 20,” Anmuth wrote in a Wednesday note. A variety of possible outcomes The Justice Department’s initial set of remedies for Google include limiting or prohibiting default agreements and “other revenue-sharing arrangements related to search and search-related products.” The myriad of potential outcomes for Google means there isn’t much near-term clarity for the stock. JPMorgan’s Anmuth noted earlier this week that Alphabet shares have been underperforming the S & P 500 and the firm’s internet stock coverage since the federal U.S. judge’s ruling in August. Indeed, Alphabet shares are up 15% in 2024, versus S & P 500’s 21% gain. Further, Anmuth noted that Alphabet is currently trading at around 16.5 times JPMorgan’s 2026 forward earnings estimates, while Meta Platforms trades at more than 20 times its forward earnings. Broadly on the Street, sell-side estimates “have also remained unchanged,” MoffettNathanson Research co-founder Craig Moffett said. However, “the market is systematically underestimating the risk of adverse outcomes,” Moffett added. Piper Sandler also thinks any headwinds from Google’s antitrust case are “complex but manageable.” The bigger catalyst for Alphabet shares is the company’s opportunity to further reduce its headcount and save on costs, analyst Thomas Champion wrote in a Sept. 30 research note. —CNBC’s Jennifer Elias and Michael Bloom contributed to this report.