How Apple’s China suppliers could actually benefit from U.S. trade tensions, according to JPMorgan

After a sweeping look at global trade shifts, JPMorgan strategists have concluded that some of Apple’s Chinese suppliers could benefit from the trend of supply chain diversification. The Oct. 18 report looked at 10 aspects of “the great supply chain relocation and the rise of trading blocs.” The analysis ranged from China’s dominance in the global supply chain and overcapacity concerns, to U.S. policy. U.S.-China tensions and talk of “decoupling” emerged during Donald Trump’s first term as president. Calls for supply chain diversification picked up during the Covid-19 pandemic. Republican nominee Trump has threatened 60% tariffs on China if he is reelected as president next month. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is expected to maintain the Biden administration’s tough stance on Chinese tech, and calls for high-end manufacturing to return to the U.S. “Tariff war 2.0 would also likely accelerate the pace of global supply chain relocation,” the JPMorgan analysts said. “Our EM equity strategy team highlights some of the MSCI EM companies (from India, ASEAN and Mexico), which could be potential beneficiaries of supply chain relocation and growth of the manufacturing sector in the respective markets,” the report said. “Further, they highlight names that could benefit from Apple’s supply chain relocation,” the report said. Apple plans to increase production of iPhones in India , while some of its China suppliers have invested in factories overseas. The analysts’ list of supply chain diversification beneficiaries included three names traded in mainland China: Wingtech Technology, Luxshare Precision Industry and GoerTek. JPMorgan rates Wingtech and Luxshare overweight, while its neutral on GoerTek. The three companies already manufacture in many parts of the world outside of China, according to their websites. Apple’s latest supplier list show the company is buying from GoerTek and Luxshare in Vietnam as well as China. A supplier list from a prior year showed Apple bought from Wingtech’s factories in Malaysia and the Philippines. The latest version only listed Wingtech’s China operations. Other Chinese suppliers have expanded business abroad along with their customers. Shenzhen-based smartphone company Oppo said when it opened its factory in Indonesia, it helped around 10 of its suppliers move there as well. Chinese companies’ overseas revenue has grown over the last few years, and a portfolio of companies with high overseas sales exposure has generated 9.5% annualized alpha from 2019 to 2023, Bernstein analysts said in their report this month on China’s global manufacturing development. “This, we believe, is going to be a key source of return for investors going forward as Chinese companies go global and leverage their low-cost, high-quality product strategy outside China,” the analysts said. Apple supplier Luxshare is also one of their top picks. Bernstein rates the stock outperform with a price target of 50 yuan ($7.02), 15% above where shares closed Friday. Luxshare “has a sizable site in Vietnam involved in the assembly of Apple wearables and non-Apple business. The overseas capacity represents ~25% of Luxshare’s overall capacity,” the Bernstein analysts said. For Apple’s iPhone, however, the Bernstein analysts are less optimistic that India can become a viable alternative to China. They expect Luxshare to gain share in the smartphone’s assembly in China. Apple is scheduled to release quarterly results on Oct. 31. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.